Heat pump marketing is selling heat pump installs to homeowners with claims you can prove: demand numbers, rebates named with their state and check date, and efficiency statements attributed to the agency behind them.
It is one slice of HVAC lead generation: a heat pump sale carries an efficiency story, a refrigerant transition and a state-by-state rebate map.
The heat pump market, in numbers
In EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 16.13 million of 123.53 million US homes, 13%, heated mainly with a ducted heat pump, 12.52 million of them in the South; another 1.06 million heated mainly with a ductless mini-split.
Per AHRI, more air-source heat pumps than gas furnaces shipped in the US in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025, and heat pumps were 47.0% of combined AC and heat pump shipments in 2025, up from 42.6% in 2024.
Two cautions: shipments are manufacturer-to-distributor transfers, not installs, and many go into Southern homes run mostly for cooling.
Demand also moves: combined AC and heat pump shipments fell 20.0% in 2025 per AHRI, then ran 5.5% ahead of the same period of 2025 through July 2026, with heat pumps up 5.8%.
The mix is regional in the trade too: in ACCA's Contractor of the Future survey, fielded September and October 2025, 45% of contractors said every heating system they sell, new or replacement, is a heat pump, from 87% in Florida to 27% in the Upper Midwest.
AHRI's monthly data gives the timing: in 2025, March through July held about 53% of combined AC and heat pump shipments, and October through December about 5% a month.
The shipment year, and when the work gets done
Heat pump leads: where they come from
A heat pump lead is the same contact event as any HVAC lead, so the channel work in the HVAC replacement leads playbook applies directly.
Google Keyword Planner data for the US, October 2026, reports about 22,200 monthly searches for "heat pump installation", 5,400 for "heat pump installation near me" and 22,200 for "ductless mini split installation", national 12-month averages no single company captures.
Owned channels produce those leads without a per-contact bill: service pages, a complete Google Business Profile, click-to-call and booking forms.
Heat pump installation leads: the AC replacement is the opening
ENERGY STAR says an air-source heat pump can, in most zones, install as a drop-in replacement when a central AC or furnace needs replacing, and pairing one with a relatively new furnace creates a dual-fuel system for a modest extra cost over an AC system.
From heat pump interest to a signed install
Heat pump advertising: the claims that hold up
Under 16 CFR 305.7(d), claims by a manufacturer, distributor, retailer or private labeler about a covered product's energy use or efficiency must be based on testing under the DOE test procedure and fairly disclose the results, and section 305.22 of the same rule treats installers as retailers, so write heat pump ads as if it applies: quote the matched system's certified rating.
New split-system heat pumps have carried a federal floor of 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 since January 1, 2023 (DOE, 10 CFR 430.32(c)).
Percent-savings claims are the second trap: the FTC settled with five replacement-window marketers in 2012 and has taken the position that "up to" savings claims need competent and reliable scientific evidence that all or almost all consumers are likely to achieve the maximum, with conditions disclosed clearly and prominently near the claim.
ENERGY STAR says an air-source heat pump can deliver up to three times more heat energy than the electricity it consumes, an efficiency figure rather than a bill-savings promise, since bills depend on local electricity and gas prices.
Cold-climate copy needs the same discipline: ENERGY STAR's cold climate certification requires third-party verified performance tested down to 5°F, and ENERGY STAR recommends a backup heat source below 5°F, so a no-backup northern ad contradicts the agency you would be citing.
Since January 1, 2025, new residential and light-commercial AC and heat pump systems generally may not be installed with refrigerant of GWP 700 or more (EPA), a limit that rules out R-410A in new designs in favor of A2L refrigerants such as R-454B, with one exception: systems whose specified components were all made or imported before January 1, 2025 may still be installed.
Existing R-410A systems can still be serviced for their whole useful life, so a deadline scare reads as pressure; the accurate version is at the A2L refrigerant transition.
Claims that hold up
- Quote the certified SEER2 and HSPF2 rating of the matched system.
- Attribute efficiency statements to ENERGY STAR.
- Name each rebate's state, programme and check date.
Claims that burn down
- A bill-savings percentage you cannot prove almost every customer reaches.
- A federal tax-credit line for a 2026 install; the credits ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025.
- A refrigerant deadline that treats serviceable R-410A systems as illegal.
The deeper rules on savings percentages are at HVAC energy savings claims; the Meta channel is at HVAC Facebook ads.
Rebates: quote them with the date attached
Stale rebate copy turns a good ad into a misleading one, so quote every rebate with its check date.
The federal credit is over: the IRS says 25C covered improvements made through December 31, 2025 and 25D is not available for property placed in service after that date, so a 2026 install cannot promise either.
On October 1, 2026, ENERGY STAR's air-source heat pump product page still said the credit runs through 2032; audit your site and proposals against the IRS pages.
The live money is the state-run Home Energy Rebates: DOE describes up to $8,000 per household for whole-home upgrades (HOMES) and up to $14,000 (HEEHR), available in "select states," per DOE.
On October 1, 2026, state programme pages showed how uneven that map is: Wisconsin's Focus on Energy listed HOMES and HEAR as available, with HEAR for households at or below 150% of area median income; North Carolina's Energy Saver NC served all 100 counties; California's HEEHRA was fully reserved statewide for single-family home retrofits as of February 24, 2026; and Georgia's HEAR was not accepting new applications.
Every status above was read on October 1, 2026, and each can change as funds reserve, so confirm your state's page before advertising a rebate.
Utility programmes add quotable amounts: Massachusetts' Mass Save published 2026 air-source heat pump rebates of $2,650 per ton up to $8,500 for whole-home installs and $1,125 per ton up to $8,500 for partial-home installs, with income-based incentives up to $16,000 or no cost (checked October 1, 2026).
Maine's Efficiency Maine lists whole-home heat pump rebates of $9,000, $6,000 or $3,000 for ducted systems depending on income tier, plus a $500 bonus on eligible whole-home upgrades completed March 1 through December 31, 2026 (checked October 1, 2026).
Confirm every figure on the programme's own page, using ENERGY STAR's Rebate Finder and DSIRE to check what a ZIP code or state offers.
The full playbook is at HVAC rebates marketing.
How to sell more heat pumps
The pitch starts with placement, not persuasion: three out of four contractors in ACCA's survey market their company brand rather than their equipment brand.
ENERGY STAR says improper installation can reduce a new system's efficiency by up to 30%, and that sealing and insulating ducts can improve heating and cooling efficiency by as much as 20%, both "up to" figures to attribute and never to promise, so a load calculation and duct check belong in every estimate.
And because DOE's analyses assume a heat pump retires at about 15.3 years against 21.2 for a central air conditioner, the replacement conversation comes around sooner than AC-only marketing expects.
Homes without ductwork or with problem rooms are their own campaign at ductless mini-split marketing.
How More Booked Installs fits
The main offer is CRO plus local SEO at $5,000 a month with a 6-month minimum: one controlled test a month on the pages that book heat pump estimates, plus the service-page and Maps work.
Either service alone is $2,500 a month, and managed Meta ads are $3,000 a month flat plus a $2,500 one-time setup, 3-month minimum: 8 to 12 static image ads a month, landing pages Gabe builds, one landing-page A/B test a month, with ad spend paid directly to Meta at a $3,000 a month minimum, never marked up.
Gabe doesn't manage Google Ads or Local Services Ads, and More Booked Installs has no HVAC clients yet, so this page carries no client results.
The method comes from Gabe Meierotto's record: as Director of CRO at LaserAway from 2018 to 2023, sitewide conversion went from 3% to 11% under the testing program he ran, with a 210x ROI on the program, 2,600+ variations and a 200% average lift on core service pages, booking-conversion experience that transfers rather than an HVAC result.
Start with the free HVAC marketing audit: a prioritized read of what your site and ads leak, findings doc inside 3 business days, no call required.
Frequently asked questions
Can I still advertise the federal tax credit on heat pumps?
No for 2026 installs: the IRS says the 25C credit covered improvements made through December 31, 2025, and the 25D credit is not available for property placed in service after that date. State and utility rebates may still apply, so confirm the programme's own page before you advertise one.
Why do some contractors avoid heat pumps?
The trade's own numbers show a regional split: in ACCA's Contractor of the Future survey fielded in fall 2025, 45% of contractors said every heating system they sell, new or replacement, is a heat pump, ranging from 87% of contractors in Florida to 27% in the Upper Midwest, so the pitch a heat pump sale supports depends on where a company sells.
Do heat pumps work in cold climates?
There is a certification for it: ENERGY STAR's cold climate certification requires third-party verified performance tested down to 5°F, and ENERGY STAR advises pairing the heat pump with a backup heat source below 5°F. Efficiency Maine says more than 200,000 heat pumps have been installed in that state and describes qualifying models as heating efficiently down to -22°F or lower.
How many homeowners search for heat pump installation?
Google Keyword Planner data for the US (October 2026) reports about 22,200 monthly searches for the term heat pump installation and about 5,400 for heat pump installation near me. Those are national 12-month averages, not volume any single company captures.
What does a heat pump installation cost?
EIA's 2023 equipment-cost report puts the typical total installed cost of a 3-ton air-source heat pump at about $6,730 to $6,880 in 2022 dollars, for an equipment swap with no duct changes. That is a modeling input, not a 2026 quote.