HVAC unsold estimates are the replacement proposals homeowners received and didn't sign, and they are a pipeline an HVAC company already owns.
This page is the follow-up half of HVAC replacement leads: that guide earns the estimate, this one covers the file the truck leaves behind.
Quote follow-up, estimate follow-up, same file; lapsed past customers are the different campaign at HVAC customer reactivation.
How many HVAC estimates end unsold
The only method-disclosed number on file is the ACCA / Farmington "Contractor of the Future" survey of 1,000+ HVACR contractors, fielded in fall 2025: contractors reported closing 43% of install jobs (45% residential, 38% commercial).
Those are self-reported averages with an undefined denominator, so read 43% as one 2025 trade survey's report, not a benchmark.
The unsold-estimate pool
Worked example: 40 estimates a month at that reported 43% signs about 17, leaving 23 a month, roughly 276 a year (illustrative arithmetic).
Round-number claims about unsold estimates circulate in marketing posts, none with a published method we could find, so this page runs on process and your own counts.
Why homeowners don't buy the first estimate
The clearest published signal is price: in a February 2026 Housecall Pro survey of 1,100+ US homeowners, 77% said they're delaying or scaling back projects because of costs, and 68% get more quotes when pricing comes in higher than expected.
Housecall Pro calls its own sample directional, so read those as intent signals, not measurements of your town.
The same survey reported 62% said they're more likely to move forward when financing or payment plans are offered.
The contractor side of the ACCA / Farmington survey points the same way: contractors offering financing reported a 49% close rate against 38% for those that don't, and those presenting four or more options reported 52% against 42%, correlations in self-reported numbers, not proof of cause.
Timing helps: DOE's 2023 furnace analysis assumes an average residential gas furnace life of about 21.5 years, a modeling average, not a promise, so the system a homeowner kept is usually still there next season.
The levers that raise the close itself are at HVAC close rate; this page stays on the file that said not yet.
Financing choices are covered at HVAC financing for customers.
An unsold estimate follow-up cadence to test
Our research found no published study defining a winning sequence, so treat this cadence as a starting point to test, not a recipe with evidence behind it.
1. Log the estimate while it's fresh
Record the options and price quoted, the reason for waiting, the preferred channel, and your consent status.
2. Recap within the first week
A short thank-you, the written recap of the options, and an invitation for leftover questions.
3. Reframe with the monthly payment
One contact answering the price hesitation directly: the financed monthly figure, if you offer financing and have consent for the channel.
4. Re-engage with the season
A heating or cooling-season touch tied to the equipment they own, a natural reason to check back in.
5. Close the file cleanly
A final message saying the quote stands until a stated date and you'll stop reaching out unless they reply, then honor it.
A reply is a fresh lead: in a 2011 Harvard Business Review audit of 2,241 US companies, 23% of web leads never got a response, and a separate HBR study of 1.25 million leads found firms trying to contact a lead within an hour were nearly 7 times as likely to qualify it as those trying an hour later.
It's from 2011, not home services, and "qualify" meant a meaningful conversation with a key decision maker, not a booked install, so it's direction, not a benchmark.
First-response mechanics are covered at HVAC speed to lead.
The rules before you follow up
Under the TCPA (47 CFR 64.1200), advertising or telemarketing calls or texts sent with an autodialer or an artificial or prerecorded voice need the recipient's prior express written consent, while informational texts to a cell phone, like a "tech on the way" message, need only prior express consent.
A revocation in any reasonable way, including a reply of "stop", must be honored within 10 business days, and whether a given texting platform counts as an autodialer is a separate legal question your software doesn't settle.
Those rules also bar solicitation calls before 8 a.m. or after 9 p.m. in the homeowner's local time and to numbers on the national Do-Not-Call registry; the rules cover text messages to wireless numbers, and a company-specific do-not-call request must be honored for 5 years.
An "established business relationship" (18 months after a purchase, 3 months after an inquiry, 64.1200(f)) matters only to the Do-Not-Call rule for live calls, not to written consent for automated marketing texts.
Email runs under CAN-SPAM: an honest header and subject line, identification as an ad, a valid physical postal address, and a working opt-out honored within 10 business days, penalties up to $53,088 per violating email per the FTC's guide.
Separate from law, carriers route business texting from local numbers through A2P 10DLC registration; unregistered traffic gets filtered, surcharged or blocked, and registration runs through your texting or field-service software.
The CTIA Messaging Principles (May 2023), the industry's code, add the standard: opt in first, keep the call-to-action clear and conspicuous, honor opt-outs any time, keep consent records.
State telemarketing laws can be stricter, so run the final plan past an attorney before the first campaign.
- Consent status recorded for every number, captured on the estimate form.
- Reason code logged, so price, timing and second-quote noes get different messages.
- Sending hours set between 8 a.m. and 9 p.m. local time.
- Opt-out honored in any reasonable form, within 10 business days.
The channel mechanics in depth are at HVAC text message marketing.
Measure recovery, not gut feel
Recovery rate is estimates signed after an initial no, divided by the unsold estimates you followed, tracked monthly from your log.
Track it by reason code and by touch to learn which noes come back, and take a baseline month before changing anything.
Where More Booked Installs fits
More Booked Installs works upstream of this file: CRO on the pages that book estimates, local SEO for replacement searches, and managed Meta ads for the top of the pipe.
The main offer is CRO plus local SEO at $5,000 a month, 6-month minimum; either service alone is $2,500 a month.
Managed Meta ads are $3,000 a month flat plus a $2,500 one-time setup, 3-month minimum; you pay Meta directly at a $3,000 a month spend minimum, never marked up, never a percentage of spend.
We don't run follow-up campaigns, train CSRs or answer phones, and there are no HVAC client results here: More Booked Installs has no HVAC clients yet.
The method comes from Gabe Meierotto's record: as Director of CRO at LaserAway from 2018 to 2023, sitewide conversion went from 3% to 11% with a 210x ROI on the testing program, booking-conversion experience that transfers to HVAC, not an HVAC result.
To know how many estimates your website fails to book before the follow-up file starts, begin with the free HVAC marketing audit.
Frequently asked questions
How many times should you follow up on an unsold HVAC estimate?
Our research found no method-disclosed study that publishes a follow-up count or a recovery rate, so any fixed number is a claim, not data. Set a defined sequence, track recovered estimates against your unsold file, and keep what your own numbers support.
Can I text a homeowner after an unsold estimate?
Under the TCPA, advertising or telemarketing texts sent with an autodialer or a prerecorded voice need the recipient's prior express written consent, so capture that consent on the estimate or proposal form. The 18-month established-business relationship is a Do-Not-Call concept for live calls, not permission to text, and state laws can be stricter.
Why do homeowners go silent after an HVAC estimate?
Price is the clearest published signal: in a February 2026 Housecall Pro survey of 1,100+ US homeowners, 77% said they were delaying or scaling back home projects because of costs, and 68% said they get more quotes when pricing comes in higher than expected. Housecall Pro describes its own sample as directional.
How long should you keep following up on an unsold estimate?
DOE's 2023 furnace analysis assumes an average residential gas furnace life of about 21.5 years, so a deferred replacement decision usually matures rather than expires. No published rule says how long to keep following up, and consent and calling rules bound the outreach either way.
What is a good recovery rate on unsold estimates?
We found no published, method-disclosed benchmark. The honest number is your own: estimates signed after an initial no, divided by the unsold estimates you followed, tracked monthly from a log.